Anyone aspiring to the throne of Peter would do well to remain in the shadows. During conclave season, public exposure often proves a misstep — a lesson taught both by history and by current events. It’s no coincidence that the two frontrunners to succeed Pope Francis — Cardinals Pietro Parolin and Luis Antonio Tagle — have become the targets of attacks, rumors, and smear campaigns just days before the papal election begins.
The most visible case is that of Parolin, outgoing Secretary of State and one of the few Vatican officials who has served throughout Francis’s entire pontificate. Seen as a natural candidate — some have even nicknamed him “Papolín,” blending his name with the papal title — Parolin has faced criticism from both conservatives and progressives. Rumors about his health have also resurfaced. In recent days, he is said to have begun pushing back, activating the Vatican’s diplomatic network with apostolic nuncios on the front lines.
The resignation of Cardinal Angelo Becciu from the conclave marked the latest blow. The Sardinian cardinal, dismissed by Francis following a first-instance conviction for embezzlement and abuse of power, announced his decision citing loyalty to the Pope and the good of the Church, while maintaining his innocence. According to Vatican sources, Becciu’s decision stems from a long-standing rivalry with Parolin within the Secretariat of State. Parolin reportedly showed Becciu two typed letters, signed with an “F” for Francis, excluding him from the conclave. Becciu’s public move, made immediately after Francis’s death, seemed aimed directly at Parolin — fueling suspicion rather than clarifying the field.
Another thorny issue for Parolin is the secret agreement with China, signed in 2018 and quietly renewed in 2020, 2022, and 2024. Though its contents remain unpublished, it is known to allow Beijing some say in the appointment of bishops — a controversial effort to close the divide between the state-sanctioned and underground Catholic churches. The deal has drawn harsh criticism from conservative circles. Cardinal Gerhard Müller said bluntly in La Repubblica: “We cannot allow the communists to choose our bishops.”
Traditionalist American platform Stella Maris Media, aligned with the Trump movement, recently published a letter allegedly written by an anonymous Chinese priest. Framed as a plea to the next pope, the letter denounces the Vatican’s agreement with the Chinese regime as a “surrender” to the Communist Party — one that has intensified persecution of Catholics loyal to Rome. “Choose truth, not diplomacy,” the letter urges the cardinals — a message clearly directed at Parolin.
The China issue, particularly sensitive in Washington, could also influence parts of the Asian episcopate — less used to Vatican intrigue but acutely aware of Beijing’s growing pressure.
But Parolin is not the only cardinal under fire. Filipino Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle, often dubbed the “Asian Bergoglio,” has also come under scrutiny. In 2022, an internal investigation into Caritas Internationalis — which he oversaw — uncovered a toxic work environment marked by favoritism, poor human resources practices, and a lack of transparency. Although Tagle wasn’t personally implicated, his leadership was deemed ineffective. The scandal has resurfaced just as his name gains traction among papal contenders.
Further criticism came from North America. Canadian traditionalist outlet LifeSite News resurfaced an old video of Tagle singing John Lennon’s Imagine. His melodic voice didn’t shield him from backlash. “Ignorance or betrayal?” the outlet asked. “The lyrics promote a world without religion.”
Even the so-called “dark horses” haven’t escaped scrutiny. Archbishop Jean-Marc Aveline of Marseille is gaining support among progressives due to his work with migrants. Some interpreted Cardinal Müller’s recent remark — “The Church is not an NGO” — as a veiled jab at him. Italian bishops’ conference president Matteo Zuppi has also faced criticism for his ties to the Community of Sant’Egidio, accused of running a kind of parallel diplomacy. A recent dinner between Sant’Egidio’s founder, Andrea Riccardi, and French President Emmanuel Macron and his wife Brigitte, following Francis’s funeral, drew particular attention inside the Vatican.
In this climate, several papabili are choosing to stay off the radar. One such figure is Robert Francis Prevost, a moderately progressive American appointed by Francis to head the Dicastery for Bishops. His inner circle fears a potential smear campaign launched from his home country. As a result, his name remains quietly in circulation.
The road to the conclave is now set. There will be 133 cardinal electors, not the originally expected 135. In addition to the resignation of Valencia’s emeritus archbishop, Antonio Cañizares, the Vatican Press Office announced another absence due to health reasons, without revealing the name. On Monday, May 5, in the Pauline Chapel, Vatican officials and assistants will take their oath. Two days later, on May 7 at 10 a.m., the Pro Eligendo Pontifice Mass will be celebrated in St. Peter’s Basilica, presided over by Dean Giovanni Battista Re. That same day, at 4:30 p.m., the conclave will officially begin with the cardinals’ procession into the Sistine Chapel, their solemn oath, and the traditional extra omnes, before the first vote is cast.
