The United States and European officials believe Israel may be finalizing plans for a military strike against Iran—an action that could further destabilize the Middle East and derail Washington’s diplomatic push for a new nuclear deal with Tehran.
Tensions have escalated to the point that the U.S. ordered a partial withdrawal of diplomatic staff from Iraq on Wednesday and authorized the voluntary departure of military families in the region. The move followed a British maritime warning of rising threats in the Persian Gulf, cautioning commercial vessels to brace for potential military escalation.
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has spent months urging President Donald Trump to approve a strike on Iran’s nuclear sites, claiming Iran is currently vulnerable. Trump previously rejected such a proposal, favoring diplomacy, but his stance appears to have shifted. In an interview with the New York Post, he admitted feeling “less confident” about securing a deal with Iran after the country’s supreme leader rejected a U.S. offer.
Diplomatic sources confirmed Trump spoke by phone with Netanyahu on Monday, while Iran and U.S. envoys were still set to meet in Oman for another round of talks. Still, Trump labeled Iran’s negotiating stance “unacceptable,” though his special envoy Steve Witkoff reportedly intended to attend the discussions.
Meanwhile, Tehran has begun preparing for potential conflict. A senior Iranian official said a response plan is already in place, involving a massive ballistic missile retaliation against Israel. In October 2024, Iran launched a missile attack linked to the Gaza conflict, which was largely intercepted thanks to U.S. support.
Iranian Defense Minister General Aziz Nasirzadeh warned that any confrontation following failed nuclear talks would provoke serious strikes on U.S. military bases in the region. Tensions intensified further after U.S. CENTCOM Commander General Michael E. Kurilla revealed he had presented Trump with a range of military options. Iran’s mission to the UN denounced the comments as “irresponsible militarism.”
In Vienna, the International Atomic Energy Agency’s board of governors is debating a resolution backed by the U.S., UK, France, and Germany condemning Iran’s accelerated nuclear activity in breach of the 2015 accord. If passed, the resolution could trigger the reimposition of international sanctions.
Since Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal in 2018, Iran has significantly ramped up uranium enrichment. Experts say the country now possesses enough material to fuel several nuclear weapons, though building a functional device could still take months. Israeli officials deem this progress unacceptable and are weighing military action, especially after recent strikes weakened Iran’s air defenses and diminished the capacity of Iran-backed groups Hamas and Hezbollah.
However, doubts remain about whether Israel can deliver a decisive blow to Iran’s nuclear program without direct U.S. military assistance.
Meanwhile, oil prices surged above $68 per barrel, the highest since early April, amid fears of supply disruptions and tighter sanctions. The U.S. aircraft carrier Carl Vinson remains deployed in the Arabian Sea with more than 60 aircraft onboard, including advanced F-35 fighter jets. The Navy has not announced any changes to its strategic positioning.
