Defying expectations, Daniel Noboa secured a decisive victory in Ecuador’s presidential runoff, dispelling predictions of a tight race following the first round. His tough-on-crime message, delivered during a deepening security crisis, resonated strongly with voters—despite the absence of new international cooperation agreements.
Noboa first came to power in 2023 after former president Guillermo Lasso triggered the “muerte cruzada,” an exceptional constitutional mechanism that led to early elections and a political reset. Noboa’s continued presence in Carondelet comes at a time when right-wing forces in Latin America increasingly look to figures like Donald Trump for inspiration.
“There’s a general rightward trend in Latin America, mainly due to the disastrous administrations of the so-called 21st-century socialism,” said Eduardo Gamarra, a professor at Florida International University, in an interview with CNN.
In 2024, Noboa introduced a partial constitutional reform aimed at amending the article that bans foreign military bases and installations in Ecuador. If approved by the National Assembly, the proposal would move to a nationwide referendum.
The president also gained ground in areas where opposition candidate Luisa González had initially performed well, such as Guayaquil. Political analyst Basabe attributes this shift largely to the issue of dollarization—a monetary system in place for 25 years and widely supported by Ecuadorians. Although González vowed to defend dollarization by boosting exports and public investment, her message failed to convince many. Her running mate, Diego Borja, faced scrutiny over a 2000 academic article discussing the possibility of abandoning the dollar system, further fueling public skepticism.
Adding to this were remarks by pro-Correísmo lawmaker Paola Cabezas, who advocated for “an Ecuadorian-style dollarization,” a statement Noboa used to claim that the opposition intended to introduce a parallel currency, dubbed “ecuadólares.” In the March presidential debate, González dismissed these claims and reaffirmed her support for dollarization, urging voters not to be misled. Meanwhile, Noboa issued a decree in March reaffirming the U.S. dollar as Ecuador’s sole legal tender.
Economic stability, along with a nationwide tour to inaugurate public works, also played a role in swaying voters in the runoff. “These actions—some of which could be described as clientelist—gave him a significant edge,” Basabe noted.
Noboa begins his new term with a divided National Assembly elected in February. According to Gamarra, the Citizen Revolution movement may secure a majority through alliances with the Indigenous party Pachakutik and other smaller groups. Given this scenario, Basabe believes Noboa will need to make major adjustments to his political strategy to navigate opposition control.
Noboa’s victory not only ensures the continuity of his administration but also signals a broader ideological shift across Latin America, with increasing alignment toward international figures such as Donald Trump and Nayib Bukele. Facing internal challenges including insecurity, governability, and diplomatic tensions, the president enters this new chapter with strong public backing, though the fragmented political landscape will test his leadership.
Noboa’s foreign policy—still taking shape—could serve as a bellwether for upcoming elections across the region.
